000 AGXX40 KNHC 250713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 313 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE GULF NEAR 29N87W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS MAINLY WEAK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AND A MORE RECENT ASCAT PASS...AS WELL AS BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN THE HIGH/RIDGING AND LOW PRESSURE AND TROUGHING LOCATED OVER INTERIOR TEXAS AND MEXICO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS TO 20 KT IN THE W GULF SAT MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS IN THE FAR SE GULF HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SE OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS IT BACK INTO THE SE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLIER NEXT WEEK...WHILE A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL E OF THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES NEAR ELEVATED LOCATIONS IS LIKELY. THIS SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD AND WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FRESH TRADES CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A 0246 UTC ASCAT PASS COVERED THE WATERS N OF CUBA AND E OF FLORIDA TO 73W WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF A WELL-DEFINED AND CLOSED LOW NEAR GRAND BAHAMA. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 28N78W WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N77W THROUGH THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ...MAINLY WHERE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. MEANWHILE 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SW TOWARD EASTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS E OF THE TROUGH AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE IN DEVELOPING A BETTER DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THIS TROUGH ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SAID LOW. THE GFS DEEPENS THE LOW JUST N OF 31N AND THEN TRACKS IT TO THE SW-W MOVING INLAND NEAR SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND THEN LINGERING OVER INTERIOR GEORGIA. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER LOW AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TAKING THE LOW INLAND NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA...SLOWLY MOVING W-NW TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET SOLUTION SHOWS A TRACK BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO...ALTHOUGH IT TAKES THE LOW BACK TO THE NE UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AFTER SKIRTING THE GEORGIA COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. IN ANY CASE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY