000 AGXX40 KNHC 240735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 335 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N85W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS FRESHENED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF WATERS HAS STARTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST ON SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WEAK BROAD PRESSURE ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH SE WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY WITH BROAD WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING JUST N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS AMPLIFIED INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES HAS FRESHENED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AS DEPICTED BY RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A COMPLEX TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK NE OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY...THEN REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY FRIDAY...REACH NEAR 31N74W FRI NIGHT...THEN SHIFT BACK SW LATE SAT AND SUN...REACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE SUN OR EARLY MONDAY. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL