000 AGXX40 KNHC 231838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AS THE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NW GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL RESULT IN SLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF ESPECIALLY N OF 22N W OF 94W THU THROUGH FRI. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH FRI BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 20N84W. A RIDGE...EXTENDING SW FROM A HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N46W...DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PRODUCING FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT...TRACKING THE LOW N OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 51W/52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU. A BELT OF 20 KT EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK RIDGE...EXTENDING SW FROM A HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N46W...DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS CAN BE FOUND S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST LIES IN THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MORE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE SW PART OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN...THE LOW PRES WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARDS THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA..AND N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS LINE OF THINKING UNTIL THE GUIDANCE COMES INTO MORE AGREEMENT. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A TROUGH OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC...WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTE THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THU AS THE LOW PRES MOVES NE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SW N ATLC. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR