000 AGXX40 KNHC 230708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR 27N93W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND THE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WED REACHING THE NE WATERS THU...AND THEN MOVE NE OF THE AREA FRI ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE W PORTION OF THE GULF. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE WATERS...WEAKENING FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 20N83W. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES PREVAILS N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PRODUCING FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT...TRACKING THE LOW N OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG 25N WITH MODERATE SW WINDS N OF THE AXIS AND MODERATE TRADEWINDS S OF THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST LIES IN THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MORE AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE SW PART OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA..AND N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS LINE OF THINKING UNTIL THE GUIDANCE COMES INTO MORE AGREEMENT. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THU THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL