000 AGXX40 KNHC 221840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR 26N93W PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND THE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PARTICULARLY S OF 22N W OF 90W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WED REACHING THE NE WATERS THU...AND MOVE E OF AREA FRI ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE W PORTION. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WEAKEN FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PERSISTENT TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1009M MB NEAR 17.5N86W ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP...AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PRODUCING FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE NEW GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA WED EVENING OR WED NIGHT THEN WILL CROSS CUBA AND MOVE TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS THU EVENING OR THU NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 47W/48W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON WED AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LIKELY ON THU. A BELT OF 20 KT NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ALBERTO AT 22/1500 UTC. AT THIS TIME...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO IS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 74.0W MOVING NE OR 50 DEG AT 15 KT AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD TROUGH CROSSING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A RIDGE DOMINATING MOST OF THE SW N ATLC WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WED. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FT. THE NEW GFS MODEL SUGGESTS STRONGEST WINDS BUT IT WILL DEPEND OF HOW STRONG THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL BE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA ON WED. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SE TO S WINDS OF 20 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE 1436 ASCAT PASS REVEALED FEW WIND BARBS OF 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY OCCURRING MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR