000 AGXX40 KNHC 211820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST SHIP / BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SHIP / BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS 4-5 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS TO 6-8 FT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TUE AND WED...WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING ALONG IT. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS CENTERED NEAR 30.4N 78.8W AT 11 AM. THE STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST BUT WILL TURN NE TONIGHT THEN EXIT THE AREA TUE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE TUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES N OF THE AREA. A TROUGH E OF ALBERTO EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N72W SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WED WHILE A WEAK LOW PRES AREA CROSSES CUBA THEN MOVES NORTHEAST BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THU AND FRI. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .AMZ111...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N W OF 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL