000 AGXX40 KNHC 210648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS. LATEST SHIP...BUOYS...CMAN STATIONS...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE E-SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE TROUGH WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING ALONG IT. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 30.5N 80.1W AT 11 PM SUN NIGHT. A TROUGH E OF THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM 28N70W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA CHAIN. ALBERTO WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND INCREASING ITS NE MOVEMENT TUE. BASED ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY TUE AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .AMZ111...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N W OF 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL