000 AGXX40 KNHC 191854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE NRN PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. LATEST SHIP... BUOY...CMAN STATIONS...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS. SURFACE PRES ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NE U.S. SW TO THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SWD TO NEAR 27N MON THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT TO THE NE GULF THU. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE TRYING TO TRACK THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN VICINITY OF GULF OF HONDURAS INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND FAVOR THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST. WITH THIS SCENARIO...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED...AND IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WHICH IS PARTIALLY ELONGATED ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IS OBSERVED FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W-87W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE TROUGH AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS GENERAL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING...WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AMPLIFYING LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION...WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE E-SE IN DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN REVEAL THAT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATING THE LOW MOVING NE OR REDEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC WATERS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NOGAPS TAKES THE LOW TO INLAND THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN...AND KEEPS IT STATIONARY THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DEVELOPS ANOTHER WEAK LOW IN THE FAR SE GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND TAKES IT NE TO ACROSS SW FLORIDA BY TUE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS FORECAST...IN REFERENCE TO THE LOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING MORE IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE AND MAINTAIN THE WEAK LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CANNOT STILL RULE OUT POSSIBILITY ENTIRELY OF ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN OR JUST NE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1009 MB LOW JUST N OF THE AREA AT 32N77W WITH A TROUGH SSW TO NEAR 28N78W. A STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N72W TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT DATA AGAIN SHOWED FRESH WINDS PREVAILING TO THE E OF ABOUT 71W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING W OF 70W. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE GFS AND UKMET REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE NOGAPS IS SORT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOP OF GLOBAL MODELS...HOLDING THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN BEFORE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW IN THE SE GULF MON BEFORE TAKING IT NE INTO THE NW PART OF THE THE BASIN TUE BEFORE EXITING THE NW PORTION LATE TUE. WILL BEST WAIT TO SEE HOW MODELS RESOLVE THE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN BEFORE BEING MORE OF DETERMINATION AS TO HOW IT OR ANOTHER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE BASIN ...IF IT ALL. SO WILL NOT USE ANY OF THE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE FOR THE SW N ATLC...AND KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE FOR NOW. WITH RESPECT TO SEAS...WILL TWEAK SEAS A BIT IN THE ZONES E OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL