000 AGXX40 KNHC 190655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE NRN PORTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE SE GULF WATERS. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...CMAN STATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SURFACE RIDGE JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE TRYING TO TRACK THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST. WITH THIS SCENARIO...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAILING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY WILL BE 1 TO 3 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE TROUGH AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS GENERAL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING...WITH THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AMPLIFYING LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SITUATION... WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE E-SE IN DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATING THE LOW MOVING NE INTO THE FAR SE GULF WATERS AND THE SW N ATLC WATERS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND MAINTAIN THE WEAK LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N75W SW TO ACROSS S CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT DATA SHOW FRESH WINDS PREVAILING TO THE E OF 70W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE GFS AND UKMET REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AND ASSESS FUTURE MODEL RUNS BEFORE MENTIONING THE SURFACE LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL