000 AGXX40 KNHC 170802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE NW GULF...1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS. BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS FROM AROUND THE GULF CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER MOST OF THE GULF AND RELEGATING THE ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR SE GULF WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY...LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI. BY LATE SAT...NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FAR SE GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A 0208 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 25 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...E WINDS ARE ONLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. THE TWO NDBC BUOYS ALONG 15N INDICATE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5 TO 7 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHIP ELUC5 ABOUT 100 NM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA REPORTED 9 FT SEAS NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS. E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS. WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 19N W OF 55W HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO 20 KT WITH 7 TO 8 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED IN PART TO A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE AND LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE S OF 10N MOVING INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. A QUASI- STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH COPIUS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES WELL TO THE NE OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT WEAK LOW PRES FORMING OFF BELIZE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK..ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS EARLIER RUNS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AND UKMET. ELSEWHERE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... REPORTS FROM BUOYS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL. A COMPLEX PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK MID LATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH N FLORIDA AND REACHES A POSITION FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA LATE TODAY...AND THEN STALL FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A FAINT SIGNATURE OF OF A TROUGH S OF 24N ALONG 64W THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL PUSH NW TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER TROUGH. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONTINUED MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW MAINLY W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST N OF 26N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN