000 AGXX40 KNHC 161836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 25N89W CONTINUING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY LOCATED IN THE SE GULF. IN-SITU BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE EXCEPTION IS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED SE-S 20-25 KT WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH FRI...DISSIPATING LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN NE OF THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRES IS WELL NE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES TOWARD S AMERICA IS MAINTAINING THESE CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY LOW FORMING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW WEAK AND BROAD TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER EAST OVER THE ATLC...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THIS WEEKEND...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 18N ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... REPORTS FROM BUOYS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 69W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS STILL VARY TO SOME DEGREE WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW N OF THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI WITH A TRAILING FRONT OR TROUGH SCRAPPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...STALLING OUT E OF 70W LATE SAT INTO SUN. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW MORE TO THE S IN THE NW CORNER OF OUR AREA S OF 31N BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON SAT AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING DESCRIBED ABOVE BLOCKS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE UKMET SHOWS MAINLY BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NW PORTION WITH LOW DEVELOPMENT N OF THE AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW AN AVERAGE OF THESE SOLUTIONS UNTIL GREATER CONSENSUS IS ACHIEVED. EXPECT ENHANCED E TO SE FLOW E OF THE TROUGH/LOW...MAINLY E OF 70W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY