000 AGXX40 KNHC 160802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO 24N93W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CUTOFF AT THE BASE OF THE LOW OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. BUOYS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND THIS TREND WILL PERSIST. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE SE GULF. THE RICH TAP OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH UNSTABLE LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS ARE STARTING TO TREND DOWNWARDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT IN S OF 15N...DOWN FROM THE 20 TO 25 KT IN RECENT DAYS. LOCALLY HIGHER E WINDS TO 25 KT ARE STILL NOTED OFF THE HILLY TERRAIN OF THE COLOMBIAN AND WESTERN VENEZUELAN COASTS. 15 TO 20 KT SE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ENHANCED BY THE INTERACTION OF WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND REMNANT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER EAST OVER THE ATLC...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THIS WEEKEND...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 18N ACROSS THE ATLC...AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH SUN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... REPORTS FROM BUOYS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS PREVAIL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MORE CONSISTENT SHOWING A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING N OF THE AREA BY LATE LATE THU...ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE MAIN IMPACT ON MARINE WEATHER WILL BE ENHANCED E TO SE FLOW E OF THE TROUGH...MAINLY E OF 70W THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SUN. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN