000 AGXX40 KNHC 151841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. UPPER JET DYNAMICS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ALONG THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOOP CURRENT ARE TOGETHER SUPPORTING PERSISTENT BUT SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AS INDICATED BY IN-SITU BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS A 1518 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE 4-5 FT SEAS IN SE SWELL ARE PRESENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTH TEXAS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NE GULF WED INTO THU...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL YUCATAN TO THE E CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRI...AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT WILL VEER MORE SE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SHIP DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 TO 25 KT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. SEAS ARE UP TO 8-9 FT AT NDBC BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST... POSSIBLY REACHING 12 FT. HIGHER SEAS CONTINUE TO ALSO BE LIKELY IN E SWELL FURTHER WEST...OUTSIDE THE SHALLOW AREAS OFF NICARAGUA...DUE TO THE LONG FETCH AND DURATION OF THE EASTERLY TRADES. A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS APPROACHING THE E PACIFIC. CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF ...GFS...AND UKMET SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FORMING OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED AS THIS FEATURE STALLS AND INTERACTS WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT HOWEVER CONCERNING THE IMPACT ON THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF THIS WEAK FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH E TO SE WINDS REACHING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT BY THIS WEEKEND. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. ELSEWHERE...TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL THEN DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE STRONGER WINDS DIMINISH. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW COVERS THE AREA AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF BROAD HIGH PRES POSITIONED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY EARLY THU. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW PRES AREA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES. FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR 31N75W BY LATE THU LIFTING NE TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH LATE FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT ON WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY