000 AGXX40 KNHC 141843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SPORADIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NE GULF PRECEDE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF PENSACOLA NEAR 30N86W TO 26N89W. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF IS MOSTLY ZONAL AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH WHICH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WED. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEAK FRONT TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRI...AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT WILL VEER MORE SE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E TO OVER THE CAROLINAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRM FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. REPORTS FROM THE SAME BUOY SHOW SEAS HAVE BEEN BUILDING TO AT LEAST 11 FT IN THE STEADY E FLOW...BUT IT IS LIKELY HIGHER IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SEAS TO 12/13 FT ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH SEAS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA... AND SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS...TWO IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND A THIRD OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE WESTERN TROUGHS MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE THE HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL STILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE STRONGER WINDS DIMINISH. MEANWHILE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE BY LATE WED DUE IN PART TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS THROUGH SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WAVEWATCH WITH THE UK AND EC WAVE MODELS...WHICH KEEPS PEAK OF THE SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 9 FT WED NIGHT WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 26N64W. 1027 MB HIGH PRES ABOUT 500 MILES E OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E FLOW N OF 26N E OF 75W. MEANWHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE W OF 75W AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WED. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE GFS INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LATE THU THROUGH FRI MOVING NE TOWARD BERMUDA BY SAT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MAINLY SHOWS A FRONT AND NOT A CLOSED LOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 4-5. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY