000 AGXX40 KNHC 121851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SLOWLY NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THIS LOW TO THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER DISTURBANCE. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE LOUISIANA/ TEXAS BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SNAKING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE THE TRAILING FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 26N94W SUN MORNING...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N91W MON MORNING...MOVING E OF THE AREA TUE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WED. MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN GULF...AS WELL AS NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST DURING THE EVENINGS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W...AS PERSISTENT HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN THE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12/13 FT NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SUN THROUGH MON WITH THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH. FURTHER WEST...LOCAL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT...MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLANTIC... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO 26N73W WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 26N73W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENT IMPACTING THE TURKS AND CAICOS SOUTHWARD. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS...MAINLY N OF 25N...THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW PORTION LATE MON...DISSIPATING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS WED. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S BREEZES WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA MON AND TUE. NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE) GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY