000 AGXX40 KNHC 111833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A LOW PRES TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 33N100W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 28N97W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. A LARGE AREA OF VERY STRONG TSTMS ERUPTED ALONG THE TX COAST LAST NIGHT...AND VISUAL SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF TSTMS FROM E TEXAS TO THE NW GULF CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE NE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE TX/LA BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT... REACHING FROM LOUISIANA TO NW YUCATAN BY SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MON THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST AND DAMPENS OUT TONIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND A FRONT MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPORT FRESH E TRADES FROM E OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON. EXPECT WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT IN E SWELL BY MON...THEN SUBSIDE TUE AND WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. SW N ATLANTIC... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 25N80W WILL TRANSITION INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRES AREA OVER GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA BY MON...MIGRATING INTO THE WATERS N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY TUE. FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GFS WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE UKMET AND ECMWF... WITH A WEAK TROUGH MIGRATING OF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY TUE. A LIGHT PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL