000 AGXX40 KNHC 101750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO 26N86W WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SE OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS FRI WITH A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI SAT THAT WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE COAST INTO LOUISIANA SUN. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...TO ALONG 93W SUN...ALONG 88W MON THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAKENING TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N71W TO 11N73W WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N INTO THE SW N ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI AND SAT...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN TRADE WINDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH ATLC S OF 15N E OF 70W. WW3 WAVE MODEL BUILDS SEAS TO 9-10 FT IN WIND WAVES AND E SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. TEND TO THINK THE GFS/WW3 IS OVERDOING THE WINDS AND SEAS A BIT...SO WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE UKMET MODEL WHICH IS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGHING INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SW N ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 28N80W WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI. A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N64W TO 23N70W...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL REMAINS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN...LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE AND STEERING THE FRONTAL REMAINS NORTHWESTWARD. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL