000
AGXX40 KNHC 081825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS MOST 
OF THE GULF TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED. A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF WED NIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE W 
OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N THU. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE FASTER WITH THE 
FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE N 
GULF. A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. BY 
THU...TROUGHING BEGINS TO INTENSIFY IN THE SW GULF AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...WITH 
MUCH STRONGER WINDS IN THE NW GULF ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
LOW. AS A RESULT...USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND UKMET FOR THU NIGHT 
AND FRI. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI 
AND SLOWLY MOVE E TO 92W THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH WED. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 
21N60W TO 11N68W WILL MOVE SLOWLY W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
THROUGH THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU THROUGH SAT 
AS A TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE UKMET IS 
FAVORED AND WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.

SW N ATLANTIC...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N70W 
TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBS INDICATE
WINDS ARE 20-25 KT ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO BEYOND 25N55W. THE 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRES 
SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT
OF THE NE GULF THU. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS AND 
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE 
ECMWF WITH THIS COLD FRONT FRI AND SAT...WITH THE GFS BUILDING 
STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS 
FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME 
ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL