000
AGXX40 KNHC 061758
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 06 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS REMAINING. WINDS BELOW 15 KT AND 
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WED. THE RIDGE 
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD 
FRONT TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED...AND SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. 
THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER 
DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE TROUGH ON WED NIGHT. CONTINUE TO LEAN 
TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET AND 
ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVER THE REST OF 
THE AREA...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

SW N ATLC...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE 
TIGHTEST. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE AS THE 
COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR 28N. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT 
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU WITH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS OF FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
STARTING WED NIGHT. 

NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS 
FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME 
ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE).

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

ATLANTIC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AL