000 AGXX40 KNHC 051810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON WED. THIS WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WED. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS... A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR W PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INTO THE FAR NE PART OF THE GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A SECOND TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH...BUT DIFFER IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE...AND APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WEAKER TROUGH AS DEPICTED BY ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MODERATE TRADEWIND FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WED. SW N ATLANTIC... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ENABLE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUE. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATE WED. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL