000 AGXX40 KNHC 031852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUBLESOME LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS LA REMAINS ACROSS THE ERN GULF TODAY AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MIDDLE/UPPER TROUGH AND VORT CENTER...MAINTAINING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN 84-86W. CYCLONIC TURNING SEEN WITHIN NRN MOST CLUSTER IS LIKELY DOWN TO MID LEVELS BUT NO EVIDENCE YET OF SFC REFLECTION. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUND ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PREVAILING S-SE LLVL FLOW NEAR 20 KT FROM BAHAMA BANK NW THROUGH THE PLUME AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF THIS AREA. MODELS FORECAST DIVERGENCE OF THE PLUME AND ELIMINATION OF FRESH GRADIENT FLOW THERE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS HIGH OFF GA COAST SINKS SLOWLY S AND WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS NRN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND ONLY EXPECT IT PEAK AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... FRONTAL TROUGH IS WASHING OUT ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS WHILE NEXT COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE AND NEARING LAT OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONS...1022 MB HIGH OFF OF GA COAST WILL SINK SLOWLY S TOWARDS NW BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE E OF 70W ALONG 26-27N LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BETWEEN 60W AND 55W THROUGH MON. AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS S...A STRONGER COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION... WILL MOVE INTO THE N WATERS SAT...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS SUN...AND FROM 31N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS ON MON. BROAD LLVL TROUGH FRONT FAR NE CARIB NE INTO ADJACENT ATLC WILL DRIFT W THROUGH FRI THEN BE SHUNTED OR NUDGED BACK TOWARD THE ESE SAT. LINGERING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INVOF THIS CONVERGENCE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...ELY TRADES AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT BY FRI NIGHT-SAT AS SW N ATLC HIGH WEAKENS AND BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE NE CARIB. GFS SUGGESTS AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT N INTO THE SW CARIB BY 72 HRS AND AID IN MAINTAINING TROUGHING FROM NE CARIB INTO CENTRAL CARIB...AND MAINTAIN MODERATE NELY FLOW NW OF TROUGH...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR AND SE OF TROUGH. OTHERWISE...MILD WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY SEASON LOW LAT ELY WAVE MOVING FROM S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WNW TO WINDWARD ISLANDS ATTM AND WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEATHER TO THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW AND KEEP WEAKENED TRADES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND WEATHER EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARDS LATE FRI INTO SAT AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES SE OF PERSISTENT TROUGH. 20 KT TRADES TO REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING