000 AGXX40 KNHC 021855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... E-W RIDGE FROM SW N ATLC ALONG 31-32N SHIFTING AS LLVL DISTURBANCE-TROUGH IS MOVING N INTO SW LOUISIANA. VIS STLT IMAGERY AND OBS ACROSS THE NW GULF SUGGEST A WEAK 1012 MB LOW JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. TRAILING PLUME OF INCREASED LLVL WINDS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM SRN BAHAMAS AND CUBA NW ACROSS ERN GULF...INDUCED BY PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OFF SE COAST OF U.S. AND DISTURBANCE. THE LOW WILL DRIFT N AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON EVENING AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WHILE TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE ACROSS LA AND THE OTHER EXITING SE TEXAS...WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE PLUME TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AND THU MORNING AS THE SRN MOST SHORTWAVES MOVES E TO FL PENINSULA THU MORNING. SELY FLOW NEAR 20 KT NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE PLUME WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SPOTS TO 25 KT FROM THE STRAITS TO SE GULF...WITH SEAS RUNNING 5-7 FT AND LIKELY AROUND 8 FT IN THE FL CURRENT. AS LOW DISSIPATES BY THU AND SW N ATLC HIGH REORGANIZES CLOSER TO COAST...EXPECT E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT FRI AND SAT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRAITS AND BRIEFLY BACKING TO NE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AROUND THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ALONG THE NE MEXICAN AND SE TX COASTS. SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 45W WILL DRIFT SE AND PERSIST THROUGH 24-36 HRS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE THU NIGHT. BY THEN A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NE WATERS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL FROM 28N55W TO 28N65W TO 31N69W LATE FRI...AND VERY WEAK FROM 26N55W TO 29N65W TO 31N67W ON SAT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ALONG 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W BY LATE SUN. SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL DEVELOP BY 48 HOURS AHEAD OF NEW FRONT N OF 28N. FURTHER W...SURFACE HIGH S OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT SE INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN REORGANIZE CLOSER TO GA/SC COASTS THU AND THAN SINK S TO SW TO JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT... AND TO NEAR 25N72W WITH A RIDGE E AND W ALONG 25N W OF 67W ON SAT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN NIGHT. MED RANGE PRECIP GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE EXTREME NW ISLANDS LATE SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... ELY TRADES AT 15-20 KT CONTINUE OFF OF COLOMBIA...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE DIMINISHED ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB TO AROUND 15 KT. BROAD LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS NE CARIB WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE AFFECTING MUCH OF NE CARIB TODAY...WITH ENE WINDS 15-20 KT FROM PUERTO RICO WSW TO SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY MAXED ACROSS THE BASIN S OF BARAHONA 7-8 FT. WITH WEAKENING HIGH ACROSS SW N ATLC...PRES GRADIENT NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING TROUGHING ACROSS NE CARIB TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND DRIFT SLOWLY W AS WEAKNESS PERSISTS THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON BOTH SIDES OF TROUGH TO MAINTAIN WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER. LOW LAT ELY WAVE APPROACHING S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...NOW ALONG ABOUT 54W...AND WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER AND INCREASING WINDS TO 15-20 KT BEHIND IT TONIGHT THROUGH THU. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING