000 AGXX40 KNHC 020541 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM SC ACROSS THE NW COASTAL PLAINS TO SE TX AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NW ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS. THE GFS FINALLY SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING IN LINE WITH THE OBSERVATIONS...AND IS ALSO NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECM AND UKMET WHICH HAVE BEEN THE BEST PERFORMERS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NW AS THE TROUGH FILLS TONIGHT AND THU. EXPECT E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT FRI AND SAT...EXCEPT BRIEFLY BACKING TO NE AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AROUND THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ALONG THE NE MEXICAN AND SE TX COASTS. SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W WILL PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY LATE THU. BY THEN A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NE WATERS ALONG 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL FROM 28N55W TO 28N65W TO 31N69W LATE FRI...AND VERY WEAK FROM 26N55W TO 29N65W TO 31N67W ON SAT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT ALONG 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W BY LATE SUN. FURTHER W...A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT S INTO NW WATERS THU NIGHT AND CONTINUE S TO THE NW BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT...AND TO NEAR 25N72W WITH A RIDGE E AND W ALONG 25N W OF 67W ON SAT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NW WATERS SAT NIGHT...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN NIGHT. MED RANGE PRECIP GUIDANCE INDICATES FAIRLY DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND TILL THE FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS THE EXTREME NW ISLANDS LATE SUN NIGHT. NOTE THAT THE SAME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSTMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR S FL FROM FRI-SUN. GFS APPEARS TO BE CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ECM ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ALL THE FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... ELY TRADES PULSING AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY TO 10-15 KT BY THU AFTERNOON AS FORECAST ELSEWHERE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO AGREE ON A NE-SE LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE N COLOMBIAN COAST FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. ATLANTIC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON