000
AGXX40 KNHC 300613
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE EXTENDS WSW FROM N FL TO THE SE TX COAST. SLY RETURN 
FLOW CONTINUES AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE THE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS IN 
RESPONSE TO THE INVERTED TROUGH NOW DRIFTING W ACROSS THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FL STRAITS. USED A LARGER PERCENTAGE OF 
ECM/UKMET IN THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE MOVING THE 
TROUGH WNW TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AT MIDDAY TUE ACCOMPANIED 
BY NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT AT 20-25 KT MAX. THE TROUGH WILL THEN FILL 
BY LATE WED WITH SE FLOW DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. A NE-SW RIDGE WILL SHIFT S OVER THE NW WATERS THU 
AND FRI.
     
SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING BERMUDA AND WILL ENTER THE NE 
PORTION AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH ALL ASSOCIATED EFFECTS 
SHIFTING E OF 65W BY SUNSET TODAY...AND SHIFTING E OF 55W BY 
LATE WED. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL REBUILD JUST N OF AREA THROUGH 
THU THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 31N THU NIGHT...AND ALONG 30N FRI 
NIGHT. THE TROUBLESOME LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR 
SE GULF OF MEXICO ATTM. ELY WINDS CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT 
THROUGHOUT THE BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS...AND 15-20 KT IS 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W. THESE 
ELY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ACROSS ONLY THE BAHAMAS 
AND FL STRAITS BY LATE TUE...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT 
THU AND FRI.     
   
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS ITS MEAN AXIS TO THE N 
OF 15N BETWEEN 81W-83W ATTM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE W OF THE 
AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUE. ELY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 
15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH 10-15 KT 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS 
FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR 
DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE).

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

ATLANTIC...
.NONE.

    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON