000
AGXX40 KNHC 261617
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RIDGE LIES FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO...WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE GULF LYING OVER THE NW GULF 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. NUMEROUS 
BUOYS AND OIL PLATFORMS SUPPORT FRESH S-SW WINDS NEAR THE 
SURFACE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE 
WEEKEND AND THEN BUILD FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE GULF. THE 
LARGEST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMES SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT 
TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF BEGINNING SAT. THE 06Z GFS HAS 
BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM BETWEEN SE 
FLORIDA AND CUBA AND NOW BUILDS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW 
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF 
THE GULF BY MON. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER TO CARRY 
THE MID LEVEL ENERGY EASTWARD AND DELAYS THE INTRUSION OF FRESH 
TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EASTERN GULF UNTIL LATE MON. 
THE 06Z GEFS MEMBERS HIGHLY FAVOR THE GFS FORECAST HERE AND THE 
UKMET SHOWS 20 KT WINDS BUILDING INTO THE SE GULF MORE QUICKLY 
THAN THE ECMWF. A TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE GFS WAS USED HERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS LIE BETWEEN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES 
FROM 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W NORTHWESTWARD 
TO 17N83W AND 1022 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC. THESE WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM 
OVER THE SW N ATLC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROUGH MOVES W INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 06Z GFS CARRIES 30 KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS. LEANED TOWARD THE WEAKER 12Z ECMWF HERE. BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...WINDS DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BELOW 20 KT 
AS THE DOMINANT HIGH PRES SYSTEM SHIFTS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER N 
OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN THE WESTERN ATLC HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION 
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS. AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
SECTION...THE 06Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW 
PRES SYSTEM BETWEEN CUBA AND SE FLORIDA AND NOW DEVELOPS FRESH 
TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA SUN. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS 
THE GFS AND LIFTS THE MAIN PRES GRADIENT FARTHER N IN THE 
BAHAMAS BY MON COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE 
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM 
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE 
MODELS BUT LEANS MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF FORECAST. 

NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR
DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE).

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.

ATLANTIC...
.NONE.

    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER