000 AGXX40 KNHC 151812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 31N70W EXTENDS A RIDGE W-SW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS OF 20-30 KT W OF 90W AND E-SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF 90W. BUOYS ARE REPORTING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF...AND 6-9 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS MON AND PART OF TUE...THEN MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE WHEN IT WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NE GULF WATERS EARLY WED. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG THE NORTHERN WATERS WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 31N70W IS PRODUCING A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC PASSAGES AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES REVEAL NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN LEE OF CUBA AND 25 TO 30 KT IN LEE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND BEHIND A DYING COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE N ON WED AND THU. TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 19N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CAN BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT MORE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND DISSIPATE N OF 15N LATE MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. S OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH N OF 15N TUE THROUGH THU WHILE NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED S OF 15N. SW NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 18N61W WILL REACH FROM 31N48W TO 20N50W EARLY MON WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHING TO 16N61W. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF AREA AND S OF 19N TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 30N49W BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N70W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS INTO FLORIDA. S OF THE RIDGE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING...RAISING SEAS 8-10 FT E OF BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 31N THROUGH MON... THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NE WATERS S OF BERMUDA MON NIGHT AND TUE. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS WED AND THU. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR