000 AGXX40 KNHC 101857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE GULF WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY W HAS NOW REACHED THE WRN PART OF THE GULF FROM 27N95W TO 20N92W AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIND DATA FROM BUOYS 42002 AT 26N94W AND REVEALS THE ASSOCIATED NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOTED YESTERDAY WITH THE TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. ELSEWHERE...BOTH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ARE ON THE RATHER LOW SIDE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE-E 10-15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 1-2 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WRN GULF WHERE HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE PRESENT. THE FORECAST DIFFERS LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS ONES IN THAT THE RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME THROUGH TONIGHT AND WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THOSE WATERS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT REACHES FROM SW FLORIDA NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ON THU. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND GULF REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BE ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTER OVER THE ERN U..S THAT MOVES OUT INTO THE WRN ATLC LATE IN THE FORECAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. AT THE SAME TIME ...LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF TO VEER AROUND THE SE ON WED INTO SAT WHILE INCREASING IN SPEEDS...TO 20 KT BEGINNING ON THU...TO 20-25 KT BY LATE FRI OVER THE WRN GULF AND. SE 20 KT WINDS GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GULF THOUGH SUN. SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT SEAS LATE FRI IN THE FAR WRN GULF AND TO 9-10 FT SAT AND SUN PER CONSENSUS OF WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REVEAL A CONTINUATION OF VERY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THESE WATERS. ASCAT PASSES FROM BETWEEN 14 UTC AND 1544 UTC THIS MORNING VERIFIED THE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. HIGHER NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE FUNNELING SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARDS JAMAICA...BUT ARE ON A DIMINISHING TREND NE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 82W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...41044 AT 22N59W AND 41101 AT 15N56W SHOW SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN A MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT/LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY FRI.. STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING SE WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN LATER INTO SUN INCREASING THE NE-E WINDS QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NRN WATERS AND THROUGH ALL THE ATLC PASSAGES. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT..AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE NW AND N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 8 OR 9 FT IN THE NW TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SUN. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDINGS SEAS TO 10 FT WITHIN 120 NM S OF HISPANIOLA ON SUN AND JUST TO THE NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 22N61W SW TO 23N65W. A RESIDUAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N68W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA TRACKING WESTWARD. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO S OF 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. ASCAT DATA FROM 1400 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE TO E 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. LIGHTER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8 FT NEAR 23N72W. SEAS AREA 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3-5 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2-3 FT NW OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD. THE HIGH AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN IN AND SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO DAYTONA BEACH EARLY WED AFTERNOON...FROM 31N68W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THU...AND FROM 31N58W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY FRI WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS N OF THE AREA SAT AS FRONT STALLS AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SIMILARLY TO THE PRESENT ONE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT INDUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SRN WATERS LATE FRI AND SAT ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT WINDS THERE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN AND SRN PORTIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE