000 AGXX40 KNHC 100742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 342 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN OSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED NE TO E WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT WERE STILL ACTIVE OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. THIS WAS ON THE E SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW POINT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N90W. THE GRADIENT IS ENHANCED BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PRES TO WESTERN CUBA. EVENING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COAST OF THE STATE OF CAMPECHE AND NEAR CIUDAD CARMEN ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT...LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOCAL TROUGHING THAT SETS UP IN THE EVENING HOURS...THIS TIME IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE S CENTRAL GULF. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT NE TO E FLOW IS NOTED WITH SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SOUTH SLIGHTLY TODAY...INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W CENTRAL GULF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD ALONG 90W TUE...THEN ERODE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE THROUGH THU. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL REACH SW FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THU THOUGH SAT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRES PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW FRI THROUGH SAT OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE WINDS TO 25 KT BY SAT MORNING OVER THE NW GULF. OPERATIONAL WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS THE NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 9 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF BY THAT TIME LIKELY WITH FRESH SE SWELL. CARIBBEAN SEA... RESIDUAL NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY A WINDSAT PASS THIS PAST EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH BUOYS AND ALTIMETERS REPORTING SEAS AROUND 2 FT. WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. BY FRI...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TOWARD THE N COAST OF CUBA. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER PUSH OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THE NE WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THROUGH SAT...MAINLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KT BY LATE SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT...PRIMARILY IN A LONG PLUME OF NE SEAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 19N W OF 55W... LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0130 UTC SHOW TRADES ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME POCKETS OF UP TO 20 KT. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TODAY THROUGH WED. A NEW TRAIN OF NE TO E SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THU ALONG WITH THE NE TRADES. THE NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS PEAKING TO AS MUCH AS 9 FT BY THU...WITH A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THU AND FRI...ALLOWING THE TRADES WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TO DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 20N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N60W WITH A SHEAR LINE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHIPS J8PE3 AND PHOS ALONG WITH A 0136 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE TRADE WINDS AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N W OF 67W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. FURTHER NORTH...SHIP C6VG8 INDICATED SW TO W WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT N OF 29N W OF 75W AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE BY WED AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY W TO NW WINDS TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...AND FROM 31N58W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. AS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE WEAKENING AND STALLING FRONT BY SAT...WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS PUSHING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THEN SPREADING EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 65W. NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OVER THESE SAME WATERS S OF 24N W OF 65W WILL BUILD TO REACH UP TO 9 FT BY LATE SAT. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN 000 AGXX40 KNHC 100742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 342 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN OSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED NE TO E WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT WERE STILL ACTIVE OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. THIS WAS ON THE E SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW POINT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N90W. THE GRADIENT IS ENHANCED BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PRES TO WESTERN CUBA. EVENING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COAST OF THE STATE OF CAMPECHE AND NEAR CIUDAD CARMEN ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT...LIKELY THE RESULT OF LOCAL TROUGHING THAT SETS UP IN THE EVENING HOURS...THIS TIME IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE S CENTRAL GULF. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT NE TO E FLOW IS NOTED WITH SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SOUTH SLIGHTLY TODAY...INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE W CENTRAL GULF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH TUE MORNING AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWARD ALONG 90W TUE...THEN ERODE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TUE THROUGH THU. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL REACH SW FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES BEHIND THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THU THOUGH SAT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRES PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRI. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW FRI THROUGH SAT OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE WINDS TO 25 KT BY SAT MORNING OVER THE NW GULF. OPERATIONAL WAVE MODELS AS WELL AS THE NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 9 FT IN THE FAR NW GULF BY THAT TIME LIKELY WITH FRESH SE SWELL. CARIBBEAN SEA... RESIDUAL NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY A WINDSAT PASS THIS PAST EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH BUOYS AND ALTIMETERS REPORTING SEAS AROUND 2 FT. WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. BY FRI...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA FOLLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TOWARD THE N COAST OF CUBA. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER PUSH OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. THE NE WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE THROUGH SAT...MAINLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KT BY LATE SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT...PRIMARILY IN A LONG PLUME OF NE SEAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 19N W OF 55W... LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0130 UTC SHOW TRADES ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH SOME POCKETS OF UP TO 20 KT. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT TODAY THROUGH WED. A NEW TRAIN OF NE TO E SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THU ALONG WITH THE NE TRADES. THE NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS PEAKING TO AS MUCH AS 9 FT BY THU...WITH A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THU AND FRI...ALLOWING THE TRADES WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TO DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 20N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WSW THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N60W WITH A SHEAR LINE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHIPS J8PE3 AND PHOS ALONG WITH A 0136 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE TRADE WINDS AROUND 20 KT S OF 22N W OF 67W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. FURTHER NORTH...SHIP C6VG8 INDICATED SW TO W WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT N OF 29N W OF 75W AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE BY WED AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY W TO NW WINDS TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...AND FROM 31N58W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. AS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE WEAKENING AND STALLING FRONT BY SAT...WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS PUSHING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THEN SPREADING EAST TO COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 65W. NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS OVER THESE SAME WATERS S OF 24N W OF 65W WILL BUILD TO REACH UP TO 9 FT BY LATE SAT. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN