000 AGXX40 KNHC 060800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN IN METEOROLOGICAL PARLANCE AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PUSHED THROUGH THE SE GULF A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CURRENTLY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 28N90W TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH TODAY AND REACH FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 27N93W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH NE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE AREA AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER GEORGIA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF THROUGH SUN. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH THE GULF STREAM CURRENT TO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT IN THE FAR SE GULF. THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND REMAINS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY SUN THROUGH TUE AS WRN ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A DECAYING FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY SAT. A REINFORCING SURGE WILL BRING FRESH NE FLOW TO THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN THROUGH MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E FLOW WILL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TUE. NE OF THE LEEWARDS...BUOYS HAD BEEN SHOWING SEAS 9 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL...BUT THIS IS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...MODERATE E TRADES WILL INCREASE LATE MON INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...A PERSISTENT MONSOON TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SPORADIC CONVECTION ON THE N COAST OF PANAMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 25N. BUOY DATA SHOW S TO SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO 22N AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TODAY...AND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N55W TO 23N65W TO WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 28N BY LATE SUN. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF 29N MON AND TUE AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MON. NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W BY LATE TUE. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN