000 AGXX40 KNHC 051855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR SE PORTION WILL SHIFT S THROUGH TONIGHT AS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF REACHING THE SE PART OF THE NW GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N95W EARLY FRI...THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF EARLY FRI NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN...THEN WEAKEN LATE SUN INTO MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF...AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY RATHER WEAK HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WILL BECOME SW AND INCISE TO 15-20 KT ON FRI MAINLY IN THE E GULF PORTION...WHILE SHIFTING TO NW-N BEHIND IT ALSO AT 15-20 KT W TO NEAR 88W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NWS RADAR DISPLAYS SHOWS INCREASING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CLUSTERS WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH N OF 27N BETWEEN APALACHICOLA AND MOBILE ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE INTO FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY SUN THROUGH TUE AS WRN ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A DECAYING FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY FRI EVENING LATE FRI INTO SAT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND INTO FRI...WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING INTO SAT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 9-13 FT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 11 FT TONIGHT...TO 9 FT BY FRI NIGHT BEFORE DECAYING EVEN FURTHER INTO SAT AND SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT...THEN SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG 20N SUN THROUGH MON AS WEAK PRES PATTERN SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... BUOYS 41049 AT 28N63W AND 41043 AT 21N65W CONTINUE TO REVEAL HIGH COMBINED SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO A PROLONGED LONG PERIOD N SWELL TRAIN LEFT BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 7 OR 8 FT BY FRI NIGHT AS THE SWELLS DECAY. THE PRELIMINARY Y 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SW WINDS S OF THE RIDGE TO NEAR 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF THE RIDGE...AND E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE S OF THE RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF THE BAHAMAS. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SIMILAR WIND REPORTS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA EXTENDING E TO W FROM INLAND THE SW PART AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI NEAR 33N75W AS THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS PSN WHILE THE UKMET IS A TAD TO THE W...AND NOGAPS MORE TO THE RIGHT. IN ANY EVENT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE WHILE ACCELERATING THROUGH FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SE INTO THE NW WATERS FRI. BOTH GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE AGREEABLE THAT THE FRONT THEN MOVES TO ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY SAT...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE FAR SE WATERS LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET WIND FIELD GUIDANCES SUGGEST THAT N-NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING N OF ABOUT 28N WITH GALE CONDITIONS JUST N OF THE AREA. SEAS BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. WINDS AND SEAS THEN GO ON A DIMINISHING TREND INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENS MON AND TUE. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE