000 AGXX40 KNHC 041853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC E OF FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) IS IN THE NE GULF AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITH FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N88W TO 27N93W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED SHORT FUSED GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST TO COVER THOSE CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE SE-S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE SE-S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE E-SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N WITH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A DECAYING FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE N. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL STALL OUT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...DISSIPATING BY SAT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 27N70W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW THROUGH SE PORTION OF THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE WATERS W OF 65W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-12 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS BY THU MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ZONES N OF 27N THIS EVENING THROUGH THU WITH SW 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT N OF 27N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRES SE OF THE CAROLINAS LATE THU WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD JUST N OF 31N ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW STILL VARIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN WITH N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT N OF 27N LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT WITH A LENGTHY NE FETCH GENERATION ZONE BECOMING TEMPORARILY ESTABLISHED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE SUN AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W-NW. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY 000 AGXX40 KNHC 041853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 253 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC E OF FLORIDA. A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) IS IN THE NE GULF AND N CENTRAL WATERS WITH FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING OCCURRING. CURRENTLY THIS AREA EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N88W TO 27N93W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED SHORT FUSED GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST TO COVER THOSE CONDITIONS. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO THE SE-S. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE SE-S WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE E-SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SAT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N WITH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A DECAYING FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE N. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL STALL OUT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...DISSIPATING BY SAT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY DECAYING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 27N70W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW THROUGH SE PORTION OF THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS COVER THE WATERS W OF 65W AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES AND IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY SWELL OF 8-12 FT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 22N E OF 70W ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS WEEK. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS BY THU MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ZONES N OF 27N THIS EVENING THROUGH THU WITH SW 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT N OF 27N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRES SE OF THE CAROLINAS LATE THU WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD JUST N OF 31N ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LOW STILL VARIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN WITH N-NE 20-30 KT WINDS BEHIND IT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT N OF 27N LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT WITH A LENGTHY NE FETCH GENERATION ZONE BECOMING TEMPORARILY ESTABLISHED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE SUN AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W-NW. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY