000 AGXX40 KNHC 021821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON APR 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ONE CLUSTER IS IMPACTING THE NE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS EXTENDING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 25N WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER CLUSTER IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N DRIFTING N TOWARD THE MS/AL/AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WEAK 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27.5N84W CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD ALONG EASTERN MEXICO...AND THE WEAK HIGH IN THE NE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH SAT AS THE RIDGE IS SLOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS COMING WEEKEND. 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N35W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE TRADES ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE INTO WED STALLING AND WEAKENING THU. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF 65W EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO 27N65W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH REACHES FROM 30N59W TO 28N60W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO 65W. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N OF 27N LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A GALE EVENT N OF 29N AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE WATERS E OF 65W BEGINNING AT 06 UTC TUE. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYSTEM WHICH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE N OF OUR AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY WED MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES MORE TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE LARGE NW SWELL FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BUILD TO UP TO 21 FT BETWEEN 55W AND 65W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED THEN WILL DECAY...WITH A WEAKER FRONT DROPPING S OF 31N LATE WED NIGHT...BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THU THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY