000 AGXX40 KNHC 020653 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT MON APR 02 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND CURRENTLY ARE AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL WATERS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR TSTMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND TUE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WEAK HIGH PRES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE IS SLOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N40W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW TO NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TUE INTO WED STALLING AND WEAKENING THU. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 12 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ZONE N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO 24N73W. SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH NW WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE E OF AREA THIS MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE N WATERS LATE TODAY INTO TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE MON INTO TUE. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR