000 AGXX40 KNHC 011837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THAT HAS PUSHED OFF THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE E GULF. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE WESTERN YUCATAN COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS DUE TO FAIRLY STAGNANT SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SLOW TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THEREAFTER. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/1350 UTC CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS DEPICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA COAST. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TUE INTO WED WITH LARGE NW SWELL PEAKING AROUND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 FT. THIS SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF THE ZONE NEAR 28N40W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STRONGEST FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR EAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONE AS A DEEP AND VIGOROUS CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE MON INTO TUE. A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE IN EFFECT N OF 29N E OF 65W IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER HUFFMAN