000 AGXX40 KNHC 241830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MON...WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE TUE AND WED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW... EXTENDING FROM DESTIN FL TO 25N94W AT 1200 UTC...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING A PSN FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY NLY SURGE WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE THROUGH FL STRAITS BY SUNSET SUN...BUT LEAVE ITS SOUTHERN SEGMENT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. BY THEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE E TX WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E...REACHING THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT. THEN THE HIGH RACES NE AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL TX RESULTING IN SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND SPREADING E EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL PERSIST OVER S-CENTRAL PORTION AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH MID WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 29N67W WITH A RIDGE TO JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS IS FORCING A SWATH OF E WINDS AT 15-20 KT S OF 23N E OF 76W. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE AND THE RIDGING RETRACTS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER S WATERS WHILE S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUN. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW WINDS TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE GFS IS BRIEFLY THIS STRONG BY SUN AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WAIT UNTIL MON AFTERNOON WHEN A SECONDARY SURGE MEETS UP WITH THIS FRONT. THE STRONGER GFS TAKES THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW NO CHANCE OF A GALE. THE FORECAST BACKS OFF ON THE STRONGER GFS...BLENDING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA LATE SUN...FROM BERMUDA TO FAR E CUBA LATE MON...AND MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW WATERS ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATLC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN 15-20 KT NE-E TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS NEAR THE COAST COLOMBIA AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. THE TRADES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FALL BELOW 20 KT BY SUN AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE SLIPPING INTO THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUE MORNING...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF 19N WED. FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/NELSON