000 AGXX40 KNHC 200723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP 998 MB LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE AREA OF TX/MX IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. ELEVATED OIL PLATFORM OBS ARE 27-33 KT WHILE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0350 UTC SHOWED A WIDE SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS W OF 90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE LOW INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN ERRATIC THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT THE LAST FEW GFS MODEL RUNS AND GREATER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN OTHER GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE...THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE BUT REMAIN VERY STRONG AT 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. FOR THIS REASON THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL NO LONGER INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TUE NIGHT AND WED AS FRONT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WED NIGHT AND THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0215 UTC SHOWED A SWATH OF STRONG ENE WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN 22N AND 27N WITH A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER WINDS 25-30 KT CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI...THEN SAG SOUTH OF 30N SAT. EXPECT FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FRI AND SAT N OF 26N. SEAS WILL REMAIN 7-10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THU. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THAT WILL SUPPORT WINDS OVER 20 KT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH FRI...AND W OF 83W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ESE WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THU. FRESH ENE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PULSE S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA... INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL