000 AGXX40 KNHC 191738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E-W RIDGE N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN SE FLOW AT ABOUT 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS RE-ADJUSTED...AGAIN BRINGING THE NEXT VERY CONVECTIVE COLD FRONT TO TX COAST ON TUE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF TUE NIGHT. THUS...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO FRONTAL TIMING THIS MORNINGS ALPHANUMERIC PACKAGE AND THE CORRESPONDING GRAPHICAL SUITE. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STRENGTH AND DURATION OF POST FRONTAL CAA...AND SREF IS ALSO SUGGESTING MINIMAL GALE OVER SW ZONE GMZ082 FROM 21N-25N W OF FRONT FROM LATE TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY WED. ALTHOUGH GFS ALSO HINTS AT A BRIEF MINIMAL GALE OVER THE NW ZONE GMZ080...OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING SREF IS MUCH LOWER. POSTED GALE CONDS EXPECTED SW ZONE THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH FRONT APPEARS STRONGER...THE CONSENSUS IS THE FRONT WILL STALL N-S SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 88W-94W ON WED EVENING...AND DRIFT W THU AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TX COAST FRI NIGHT. MAY BE MORE CHANGES TO LATER FORECAST PACKAGES AS MODELS RE-ADJUST WITH THE INTENSE UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONE OVER THE SW CONUS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE GA COAST HAS DIPPED S INTO THE EXTREME NW ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY TSTMS...BUT THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NW AND FILL AS THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS W ALONG 31N TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT N OF AREA THROUGH TUE AND REMAIN N OF AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE RETURNING S ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE HIGH REACHING NEAR 31N73W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BOTH E AND W ALONG 31N FRI NIGHT. NE-E TRADES AT 15-20 KT HAVE BUILT W ACROSS THE AREA TO THE S OF 27N EXCEPT ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT...SEAS TO 11 FT...NEAR 25N67W. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO BEGIN TO RELAX SOME ON TUE WITH GENERALLY NE-E 15-20 KT ACROSS AREA TO THE S OF 27N THROUGH THU...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 15 KT AS RIDGE RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SSE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THE LOW LEVEL SLY WINDS ALONG ITS W PERIPHERY...OVER WATERS N OF 27N W OF 77W...WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WAY UPSTREAM OVER THE SW CONUS INTENSIFIES...AND NOW SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL WINDS IN S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL NOT DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. THUS MADE CHANGES TO THIS MORNINGS HSF AND OFF TEXT FORECASTS...AND THE CORRESPONDING GRAPHICAL SUITE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE NE-E 20-25 KT ALONG NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED. NE-E WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THESE CONDITIONS ALSO OCCURRING JUST TO THE S OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE LEEWARDS WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING ENE AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NE SWELLS AT 6-9 FT WILL ARRIVE ALONG 22N TUE...WHICH IS MUCH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT SUBSIDING TO ABOUT 6-7 FT BEFORE REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES EARLY WED...WHICH IS ALSO ABOUT 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THESE NE SWELLS SHOULD DAMPEN OUT BEFORE REACHING 15N WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED 21N-25N W OF FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT-MIDDAY WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON