000 AGXX40 KNHC 181806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E-W RIDGE JUST N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING SE FLOW FROM 15-20 KT TO 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THE BIG CHANGE IS THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT TX COAST A LITTLE LATER ON TUE EVENING...THEN SLOW AND STALL N-S SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 88W-94W LATE WED...AND DRIFT WED NIGHT AND THU TO ALONG THE TX COAST AT SUNRISE FRI...THEN DISSIPATE FURTHER INLAND LATE FRI. STILL EXPECTING NLY CAA TO MAX AT 30 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT...FROM 22N TO 26N W OF FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS FRONT STALLS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... AN E-W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 31N THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN SHIFT N OF AREA THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM W TO E ALONG 31N ON FRI. A SERIES OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS...ORIENTATED GENERALLY N-S...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERLIES S OF THE RIDGE RESULTING IN SWATHS OF NE WINDS ENHANCED TO 20 TO 25 KT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS N ON TUE...AN AREA OF THESE ENHANCED NE WINDS ALREADY BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... WILL SPREAD W OF 65W ACROSS THE AREA S OF 27N...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL WITH MAX HEIGHTS NEAR 25N65W ON MON NIGHT. THE EASTERLIES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N LATE TUE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH/SUBSIDE FRI AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE EASTERLIES ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SOME EARLY THIS WEEK BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WED NIGHT. ENE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THESE CONDITIONS ALSO OCCURRING JUST TO THE S OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NE-SE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE LEEWARDS WILL DISSIPATE MON NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING ENE AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THROUGH WED NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY NLY SWELLS AT 7-9 FT ARRIVING ALONG 22N WED NIGHT...BUT SUBSIDING TO ABOUT 6-7 FT BEFORE REACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON