000
AGXX40 KNHC 170751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
351 AM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA W-SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND 
THEN W ALONG 30-31N AND N GULF COASTS TO E TEXAS. HIGH TO DRIFT 
N AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH NEWER AND STRONGER HIGH OVER NW 
ATLC...AND MAINTAIN CURRENT RIDGING THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE 
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT N IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING LOW 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON NIGHT-TUE. THIS ALIGNMENT WILL 
MAINTAIN CURRENT PATTERN OF MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE 
BASIN BEFORE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO 
DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOOK FOR ELY WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FL TONIGHT WHILE 
MOST OF THE W HALF BECOMES SE 15-20 KT...THEN INCREASES FURTHER 
TO 20 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT SUN NIGHT W OF 89W. COLD 
FRONT FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON 
WITH NLY WINDS 15020 KT BEHIND IT...WHILE FRESH SELY FLOW 
CONTINUES TO THE E OF FRONT. FRONT TO REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 
W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...WITH NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT 
INCREASING BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY TO 25-30 KT S OF 25N. DEEP 
LAYERED AND ENERGETIC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO 
YIELD SEVERE CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO MS 
VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY YIELD VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE 
CONVECTION ACROSS W WATERS AND THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL 
WATERS WED. 

SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA W-SW 
TO N FLORIDA AND THEN W ALONG 30-31N. RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE 
THROUGH MON TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE REINFORCING FRONTAL ZONE SINKS S ACROSS 
NE PORTIONS SUN EVENING AND NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND HELPING 
TO ESTABLISH INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW TUE-WED. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
TROUGH BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND 64W CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT A BROAD 
WEAKNESS IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED ALONG ABOUT 
70W THIS MORNING...AND RIGHT ACROSS ZONE OF STRONGEST LLVL FLOW 
BETWEEN 25N-28N. SURFACE TROUGHS IN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO 
DRIFT W...WHILE REMAINING ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY E OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AND THEN WEAKENING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE W OF TROUGH. 
NARROW ZONES OF 15-20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO 
DRAPE ACROSS TOP OF THESE SURFACE TROUGHS THROUGH SUN. 
OTHERWISE...SEAS 6 FT AND LESS IN MIXED NE SWELL THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS AT 15-20 KT ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE E OF 82W...AND S PORTIONS OF 
THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT 25-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM 
OF NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS W ATLC HIGH DRIFTS N 
TONIGHT AND SUN...GRADIENT FLOW TO WEAKEN WITH WINDS 20 KT AND 
GREATER BECOMING CONFINED TO SRN CARIB...WITH MAX SEAS SUBSIDING 
TO 9 FT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS MODERATE TRADEWIND FLOW TO 
PERSIST MON THROUGH WED.

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER STRIPLING