000 AGXX40 KNHC 161809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E-W RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG 31N THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT FURTHER N THROUGH MON...THEN RETRACT E ON TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT EXCEPT PULSE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW WATERS...THROUGH SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SAT EVENING WITH THE SE 15-20 KT FLOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MON NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL CLOCK TO S AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE JUST AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE COLD FRONT. EXPECT NLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO 30 KT BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW PORTION OF ZONE GMZ082 AROUND SUNRISE WED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW WATERS TUE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ALONG 32N-33N WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 31N-32N SAT NIGHT AND MEANDER THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN SHIFT N AGAIN ON TUE. A N-S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ALONG 70W IS CURRENTLY MOVING UNDER THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH CONVECTION FLARING WITHIN 90 NM OF 26.5N66W. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY AT NE 15-20 KT OVER THE E CENTRAL WATERS E OF THE BAHAMIAN CHAIN WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY SAT...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE E OF 82W...EXCEPT 25-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING SOME SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WED. GENERALLY NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT FORECAST ELSEWHERE WITH A NEW ROUND OF NLY ARRIVING TO THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WED NIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON