000 AGXX40 KNHC 160738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK W ATLC RIDGE POKING W-SW INTO ERN GULF TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON AND MAINTAIN MODERATE ELY FLOW GENERALLY S OF 26N E OF 90W AND E TO SE FLOW ELSEWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SAT EVENING WITH THE SE FLOW BECOMING 15-20 KT ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA..THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT MON THROUGH TUE... WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 6-7 FT BY LATE MON AND 6-8 FT TUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAK W ATLC RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 32N/33N THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SW. ELY PERTURBATION ALONG 70W/71W ATTM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TODAY AS IT MOVES W AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER THIS LLVL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER W LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW ZONE OF 20 KT AND HIGHER WINDS BETWEEN 24N-27N WITH SQUALLS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED. A SECOND TROUGH JUST TO THE SE IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT ON STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND MODELS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT FEATURE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY W AND REMAINS IN FAVORABLE POSITION E OF UPPER TROUGH FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E TO SE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE SW SHIFT OF THE HIGH PROMOTES A MORE E TO NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. SEAS PRESENTLY DOMINATED BY NE WIND SEA AND FADING NE SWELL...AND ARE 6 FT OR LESS EXCEPT INVOF TROUGHS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK W ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON 1026 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT BEFORE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THROUGH MON. THIS SCENARIO TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE S AND SW CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PULSING OF PEAK WINDS ACROSS CARIB OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND OF HIGH...WINDS TO 30 KT AT PRESENT THERE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST DURING NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC AT 7-8 FT IN NE AND N SWELL S OF 16N ATTM AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN 4-6 FT AREA WIDE BY SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING