000 AGXX40 KNHC 061930 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST TUE MAR 6 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD... RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND SAT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AT THIS POINT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE FRONT. GFS BUILDS HIGH PRES OVER OK AND TX FRI AND SAT...WHICH AGGRESSIVELY DRIVES THE FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF WITH 20-25 KT NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER ECMWF AND CMC FRONTS ARE MUCH WEAKER...AND STALL THE FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE ZONES. I'M NOT BUYING WHAT GFS IS SELLING...AND CONSIDER GFS THE OUTLIER HERE. WILL USE ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR FRI-SUN TIME FRAME WHICH AGREES WITH HPC DISCUSSION AND TX COASTAL ZONE FCSTS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... SHEAR LINE FROM 27N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT FROM A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND A FRONT FROM 31N64W TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY N OF THE SHEAR LINE THROUGH THU. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITHIN 200-300 NM N OF THE SHEAR LINE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI AND SAT AS THE SHEAR LINE BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE-FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU...AND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO FRI MORNING BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THE SIZE OF THE GALE AREA WILL LIKELY PULSATE DURING THE DAY...EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF WINDS GREATER THAN 30 KT TO PERSIST FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG 25-30 KT EAST WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. EXPECT LOW PRES TO PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 13-19 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 8-11 FT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. A SHEAR LINE FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GULF OF HONDURAS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATE TONIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084-086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 73W-79W THROUGH THU. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL