000 AGXX40 KNHC 011945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION S OF N NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC WESTWARD INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REPORTED AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AND S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF THE RIDGE. THE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE FAR SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED PATCHES OF DISSIPATING FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER THE FAR N AND NE PORTIONS. WITH THE VERY MOIST SE FLOW PRESENT THROUGHOUT...EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS SAT MORNING. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY SAT EVENING...FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF SUN AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO INTENSIFY THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WHILE TRACKING IT NE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUE. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SOME INSTANCES OF 20-30 KT IN THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GFS 10 METER WINDS SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SW SECTION OF THE SW GULF BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON. WILL STILL LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE GUIDANCE RANGE WITH A MAX SPEED OF 40 KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 95W AS 925 MB GFS WINDS SHOW UP TO 50 KT OVER WARM AND MOIST WATERS THERE. GALE FORCE WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT EARLY ON SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W...AND TO 20 TO 25 KT. AS THE HIGH LIFTS NE...NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE GULF BUT DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NRN HALF MON WHILE BECOMING MORE ELY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE ZONES S OF OF ABOUT 26N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. THIS STRENGTHENING WILL LEAD TO TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS E OF 92W ON TUE WITH THE BRIEF RESPITE OF LIGHTER WINDS THERE ENDING AS THEY INCREASE AGAIN TO NE-E 20 KT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE AND NAH WAVE GUIDANCE FOR SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN. THE EUROPEAN WAVE GUIDANCE CONCURS WITH THESE MODEL GUIDANCES AS WELL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 26N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 24N TO 28N. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W SW TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN N OF 26N E OF 65W. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING NOTED NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ZONE S OF ABOUT 24N. MAX SEAS OF 8 FT ARE S OF 22N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 66W. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SAT. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS OF 20 KT BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING N OF 30N W OF 77W...THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH THU NIGHT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT ONCE IT MOVES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST WILL REACH FROM 31N68W TO WESTERN CUBA BY SUN EVENING...FROM 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON EVENING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM NEAR 25N65W TO EASTERN CUBA TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1434 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE WRN PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE SEA DUE THE WAY THE BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SET UP WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE BASIN. SHIP "A9OZ6" AT 11N75W AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING REPORTING NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 40 KT. BASED ON MODEL PROJECTIONS IT APPEARS THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE PRESENT GALE WARNING WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT W AND WEAKEN. SO WILL LOWER WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE ZONE TO BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN PORTION ...AND ON FRI MORNING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN PORTION TO NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT. MAX SEAS OF 15 FT THERE WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WAVEWATCH PROGS STILL SHOWING SEAS OF 13 AND 14 FT FT BY SUN CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE...AND SLOWLY DECAYING TO 11 OR 12 FT BY TUE. NE SWELLS RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8-11 WILL SPREAD SW INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ZONE THROUGH TUE. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN MAX SEAS OF 11 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TO 6-8 FT SAT. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKENS TUE. SEAS BUILD IN THE TROPICAL N AGAIN TO 10 OR 11 FT IN NE SWELLS LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 23N W OF 95W SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W THROUGH EARLY FRI. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE