000 AGXX40 KNHC 291945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REPORTED AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE SW ZONE AND THE PORTION S OF 28N IN THE NW ZONE WHERE SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE SW ZONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG/STRATUS EARLIER VISIBLE OVER THE FAR N AND NE WATERS ARE NOW DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING N. WITH VERY MOIST SE FLOW THROUGHOUT...EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 EVENINGS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE 12 UTC GFS RUN IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH MAJORITY OF THE NWP MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF EARLY ON SAT. THE NOGAPS SOLN IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MAIN ENVELOPE. WILL FORECAST THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON...FROM JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN BEFORE EXITING THE GULF SUN EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INTENSIFY THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WHILE TRACKING IT NE ACROSS T THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MON. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SAT...WITH GFS 10 METER WINDS SUGGESTING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SW SECTION OF THE SW GULF ON SAT NIGHT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH A MAX SPEED OF 40 KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE SW GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 3-35 KT EARLY ON SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W...AND TO 20 TO 25 KT. AS THE HIGH LIFTS NE...NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE GULF BUT DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NRN HALF MON WHILE BECOMING MORE ELY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE ZONES S OF OF ABOUT 26N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N70W SW TO NRN FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W FROM 26N TO 28N. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THAT VICINITY PULLING OFF TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING NOTED NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ZONE S OF ABOUT 26N. AX SEAS OF 9 FT ARE S OF 22N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 66W. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SAT. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS OF 20 KT BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART N OF 30N BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH THU NIGHT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...WHICH IS DELAYED SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN EVENING...AND FROM 31N66W TO 27N72W AND STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA BY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1454 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE SW PART OF THE SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA S OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. BASED ON THE CURRENT ANALYZED BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND MODEL PROJECTIONS IT APPEARS THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE PRESENT GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN AT LEAST LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD BE PERIODIC THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE WINDS THERE DIMINISH TO 30 KT. MAX SEAS OF 15 FT THERE WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WAVEWATCH PROGS STILL SHOWING SEAS OF 13 AND 14 FT FT BY SUN CONFINED TO THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT IN A NE-E SWELL WILL SPREAD IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ZONE THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN MAX SEAS OF 11 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TO 6-8 FT SAT. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN SAT THROUGH MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W SAT NIGHT INTO SUN... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W THROUGH EARLY THU. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 291945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED FEB 29 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC SW TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REPORTED AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE SW ZONE AND THE PORTION S OF 28N IN THE NW ZONE WHERE SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE SW ZONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG/STRATUS EARLIER VISIBLE OVER THE FAR N AND NE WATERS ARE NOW DISSIPATING WHILE LIFTING N. WITH VERY MOIST SE FLOW THROUGHOUT...EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MATERIALIZE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 EVENINGS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE 12 UTC GFS RUN IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH MAJORITY OF THE NWP MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF EARLY ON SAT. THE NOGAPS SOLN IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MAIN ENVELOPE. WILL FORECAST THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY ON SAT. THE FRONT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON...FROM JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO NEAR THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN BEFORE EXITING THE GULF SUN EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INTENSIFY THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WHILE TRACKING IT NE ACROSS T THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MON. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SAT...WITH GFS 10 METER WINDS SUGGESTING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SW SECTION OF THE SW GULF ON SAT NIGHT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH A MAX SPEED OF 40 KT SAT BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE SW GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 30-35 KT EARLY ON SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W...AND TO 20 TO 25 KT. AS THE HIGH LIFTS NE...NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE GULF BUT DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OVER THE NRN HALF MON WHILE BECOMING MORE ELY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE ZONES S OF OF ABOUT 26N WHERE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N70W SW TO NRN FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W FROM 26N TO 28N. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THAT VICINITY PULLING OFF TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING NOTED NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ZONE S OF ABOUT 26N. AX SEAS OF 9 FT ARE S OF 22N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 66W. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SAT. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. SW WINDS OF 20 KT BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART N OF 30N BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE THROUGH THU NIGHT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT NIGHT...WHICH IS DELAYED SOME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN EVENING...AND FROM 31N66W TO 27N72W AND STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA BY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1454 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE SW PART OF THE SEA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA S OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. BASED ON THE CURRENT ANALYZED BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND MODEL PROJECTIONS IT APPEARS THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE PRESENT GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN AT LEAST LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI...BUT SHOULD BE PERIODIC THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE WINDS THERE DIMINISH TO 30 KT. MAX SEAS OF 15 FT THERE WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WAVEWATCH PROGS STILL SHOWING SEAS OF 13 AND 14 FT FT BY SUN CONFINED TO THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT IN A NE-E SWELL WILL SPREAD IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ZONE THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN MAX SEAS OF 11 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TO 6-8 FT SAT. HOWEVER THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN SAT THROUGH MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W SAT NIGHT INTO SUN... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W THROUGH EARLY THU. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE