000 AGXX40 KNHC 281938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST AND CURRENT BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE REPORTING GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE MORE FROM THE S IN DIRECTION. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO REPORTING AN E SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF S OF 27N. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE PART WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE CONTINUATION LOW STRATUS/FOG PATCHES LIFTING NWD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION N OF ABOUT 28N IN THE NW GULF...AND N OF 27N IN THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REAPPEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS RUN FROM THIS MORNING VALID 12 UTC IS LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE GULF COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. WILL LEAN WITH ENVELOPE OF MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING SLOWER TIMING OF EMERGENCE OF FRONT INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL MEAN THAT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FORECAST COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY ON SAT...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INTENSIFY THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SAT...WITH GFS 10 METER WINDS SUGGESTING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SW SECTION OF THE SW GULF ON SUN. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE NCEP NAM INDICATE 30 KT NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF FOR SUN. THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN WHICH GALE FORCE WINDS MATERIALIZE TO HIGHER SPEEDS THEN INITIALLY FORECASTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. SO BASED ON THIS INTERPRETATION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE HEADLINER IS IS APT TO MODIFICATION BASED ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF WINDS AND AREAL COVERAGE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD RATHER QUICKLY TO HIGH LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT AND SUN. WILL FORECAST ABOUT 10 FT MAX FOR FOR THOSE DAYS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THE TIGHT PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT SAT INTO SUN WITH NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR N WATERS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N E OF 667W WITH STRONG HIGH PRES PRESENT ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OFFSHORE THE E FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N ALONG 79W. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING NOTED NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE ZONE S OF 26N WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE SE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PASS ALSO SHOWED NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MAX SEAS OF 9-10 FT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 22N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 66W. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE N OF ABOUT 30N. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT AFTERNOON...REACH FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA EARLY SUN...AND FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 20 KT TO POSSIBLY 25 KT N OF ABOUT 29N...AND W WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1514 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25 KT IN THE SW PART OF THE SEA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN ADDITION...SHIP "A9SF7" WITHIN 35 NM NW OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AT 11N76W REPORTED NE WINDS OF 35 KT AT 1845 UTC WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 15 FT. ELSEWHERE THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N...AND ALSO THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A PARTIAL 1332 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE SEA...AND IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. BASED ON THE CURRENT ANALYZED BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND MODEL PROJECTIONS IT APPEARS THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN AT LEAST EARLY THU BEFORE WINDS THERE DIMINISH TO 30 KT. MAX SEAS OF 15 FT THERE WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WAVEWATCH PROGS STILL SHOWING SEAS OF 13 AND 14 FT FT BY SUN CONFINED TO THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT IN A NE-E SWELL WILL SPREAD IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ZONE THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TO 6-8 FT SAT AND SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W THROUGH EARLY THU. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 281938 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST AND CURRENT BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE REPORTING GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE NW GULF WHERE WINDS ARE MORE FROM THE S IN DIRECTION. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO REPORTING AN E SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF S OF 27N. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE PART WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE CONTINUATION LOW STRATUS/FOG PATCHES LIFTING NWD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION N OF ABOUT 28N IN THE NW GULF...AND N OF 27N IN THE EASTERN GULF. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REAPPEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS RUN FROM THIS MORNING VALID 12 UTC IS LITTLE FASTER WITH TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE GULF COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. WILL LEAN WITH ENVELOPE OF MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING SLOWER TIMING OF EMERGENCE OF FRONT INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL MEAN THAT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FORECAST COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY ON SAT...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA SUN EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INTENSIFY THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SAT...WITH GFS 10 METER WINDS SUGGESTING GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE FAR SW SECTION OF THE SW GULF ON SUN. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE NCEP NAM INDICATE 30 KT NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF FOR SUN. THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN WHICH GALE FORCE WINDS MATERIALIZE TO HIGHER SPEEDS THEN INITIALLY FORECASTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. SO BASED ON THIS INTERPRETATION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE HEADLINER IS IS APT TO MODIFICATION BASED ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF WINDS AND AREAL COVERAGE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD RATHER QUICKLY TO HIGH LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT AND SUN. WILL FORECAST ABOUT 10 FT MAX FOR FOR THOSE DAYS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THE TIGHT PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT SAT INTO SUN WITH NE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR N WATERS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N E OF 667W WITH STRONG HIGH PRES PRESENT ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS OFFSHORE THE E FLORIDA COAST N OF 28N ALONG 79W. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING NOTED NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE ZONE S OF 26N WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE SE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PASS ALSO SHOWED NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MAX SEAS OF 9-10 FT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 22N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 66W. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE N OF ABOUT 30N. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE SAT AFTERNOON...REACH FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA EARLY SUN...AND FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 20 KT TO POSSIBLY 25 KT N OF ABOUT 29N...AND W WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ALONG CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1514 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 25 KT IN THE SW PART OF THE SEA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN ADDITION...SHIP "A9SF7" WITHIN 35 NM NW OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AT 11N76W REPORTED NE WINDS OF 35 KT AT 1845 UTC WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 15 FT. ELSEWHERE THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N...AND ALSO THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A PARTIAL 1332 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE SEA...AND IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. BASED ON THE CURRENT ANALYZED BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND MODEL PROJECTIONS IT APPEARS THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN AT LEAST EARLY THU BEFORE WINDS THERE DIMINISH TO 30 KT. MAX SEAS OF 15 FT THERE WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WAVEWATCH PROGS STILL SHOWING SEAS OF 13 AND 14 FT FT BY SUN CONFINED TO THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT IN A NE-E SWELL WILL SPREAD IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ZONE THROUGH SUN. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TO 6-8 FT SAT AND SUN. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN S OF 22N W OF 95W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W THROUGH EARLY THU. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE