000 AGXX40 KNHC 271941 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR NE MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST AND CURRENT BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT SE OF THE TROUGH E OF 92W...AND NE-E 15 KT W OF THE TROUGH. IN THE SW GULF...LIGHT 5-10 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OCCURRING. RESIDUAL E SWELLS FROM THE RECENT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF 4-6 FT OVER THE THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GULF...WITH SWELLS IN THE SW GULF NOW DIMINISHING TO 3-5 FT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE...AND AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ALONG 28N INTO THU. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE ONE THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA COASTS LATE FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY SAT...AND FROM NE FLORIDA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT. THE MODELS ALSO INTENSIFY THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SAT...WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THAT WINDS REACH 30 KT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE SW GULF ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR JUST BEYOND DAY 5...AND WILL BE LEFT OFF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW. SEAS BUILD RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N E OF 67W WITH STRONG HIGH PRES PRESENT ELSEWHERE. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND N FROM THERE. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING NOTED NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE ZONE S OF 26N WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE FROM THE SE W OF THE BAHAMAS. A FEW SHIP REPORTED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. MAX SEAS OF 9-10 FT ARE SEEN WITHIN ABOUT 90-120 NM E OF THE SE BAHAMAS. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO NEAR THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES PRESENT OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE N OF ABOUT 30N. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N THU AND FRI PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 20 KT TO POSSIBLY 25 KT N OF ABOUT 30N...W-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRES THEN SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY FRI. ON SAT...SW WINDS OF 20 KT MATERIALIZE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NRN WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1354 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT WHERE INDICATED BY THE PASS S OF CUBA TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. A FEW SHIPS NEAR AND S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WERE RECENTLY REPORTING E WINDS OF 25-30 KT. THE PASS MISSED THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE CURRENT GALE WARNING EXISTS...BUT WARNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH WED EVENING AS THE BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THESE WINDS AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES OF 1034 MB E OF THE MID-ATLC REGION OF THE U.S. EASTERN COAST SHIFTS ESE THROUGH THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAX SEAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE OF THE UKMET AND NOAA 3 WAVEWATCH INTO TUE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. ON THU...LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND TO 7-8 FT SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W THROUGH WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE