000 AGXX40 KNHC 261940 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 24N90W SW TO A DISSIPATING 1016 MB LOW AT 22N94W AND SE TO 18N93W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. LATEST AND CURRENT BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE SHOWING E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT E OF ABOUT 91W...NE-E 15 KT WINDS W OF 91W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE NW WINDS OF 15-20 ARE W OF THE FRONT AND SE-S WINDS OF 15 KT ARE E OF THE FRONT. DUE THE LONG DURATION OF RECENT STRONG NE-E WINDS THAT WERE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF... RESULTANT NE-E SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE MIDDLE GULF AND UP TO 12 FT IN THE SW GULF. SWELLS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SRN TEXAS COAST THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE FRONT NWP MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS ATLC HIGH PRES WILL BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESENTLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN TO SLACKEN. MODELS HINT THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS IT REACHES FROM NE TEXAS TO EASTERN LOUISIANA LATE ON WED AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA LATE THU. WEAK HIGH PRES THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE E GULF BY FRI WITH RETURN SLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF ZONES. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N65W SW TO 25N71W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO S FLORIDA. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1412 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT W OF 69W...AND NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT BETWEEN FRONT AND 69W. NE 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE FRONT W OF 70W. SEAS MAX OUT UP TO 7 FT WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF 75W AS IT LIFTS BACK N THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND ALSO DISSIPATE E OF 75W TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT. BY WED NIGHT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART BEGINNING ON WED AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE N OF ABOUT 30N. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS N OF 29N THU AND FRI PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT N OF ABOUT 30N...AND W-NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH PRES THEN SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1416 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED HIGH END NE-E WINDS OF 30 KT S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SHIP "A80ZG" ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA REPORTED NE WINDS OF 33 KT THIS MORNING. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SEA AS WELL AS IN THE FAR WESTERN TROPICAL N ATLC. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC IS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR WINDS OF GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE COLOMBIA LOW WILL KEEP THESE WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE WARNING AREA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W TILL EARLY WED. MAX SEAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD PEAK AT 15 KT PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. ON THU...LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TILL EARLY WED. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE