000 AGXX40 KNHC 251943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FLORIDA TO 24N89W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING E ACROSS THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE GULF HAVE BEEN...AND ARE SHOWING RATHER PERSISTENT NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT THROUGHOUT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW GULF ZONE W OF THE FRONT WHERE NW-N WINDS OF GALE FORCE RANGE 30-40 KT ARE NOTED S OF 22N. A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PAS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SUGGEST THESE WIND SPEEDS. THIS SHIP "PDWZ" REPORTED NW WINDS OF 45 KT WITHIN ABOUT 20 NM NE OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. BASED ON THIS...AND ON THE VERY STRONG ANALYZED PRES GRADIENT I BUMPED THE ALREADY PRESENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT.THIS SAME SHIP ALSO REPORTED MAX SEAS OF 17 FT...SO RAISED SEAS FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF AS WELL. THE 17 FT VALUE WAS ABOUT 3 FT HIGHER THAN THE NOAA AND ECMWF WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE WAS JUST 1 FT DIFFERENT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 9-14 FT RANGE S OF 28N...AND 5-8 FT N OF 28N WITH LOWER SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE GULF. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OR STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EXTEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. NWP MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY TUE WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION HANGS BACK AS A POSSIBLE FRONTAL TROUGH ORIENTED N TO S INTO SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH MON NIGHT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AT THAT TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PREDOMINATELY SW UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SLACKEN THROUGH MON NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED. MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NE TEXAS TO EASTERN LOUISIANA LATE ON WED AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA LATE THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N71W SW TO MIAMI FLORIDA. BOTH BUOY/SHIP DATA ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1430 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NW-N WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SW WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE MARKED AS A VERY NARROW LINE OF MOSTLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 23N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN BEFORE ITS WESTERN PORTION BEGINS TO LIFT N WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE FRONT. BY LATE WED THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE ALLOWING FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NW PART BEGINNING ON WED AND EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE ZONE N OF ABOUT 30N AS THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT...IT APPEARS THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE ZONE DURING WED AND THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING BACK OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON REPORTED NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE FAR SRN PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER THEY WERE MOST LIKELY OUTSIDE THE RANGE OF THE CURRENT GALE WARNING AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS THERE ARE ABOUT 13 FT. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO BELOW GALE FORCE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC IN PLACE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SUSTAINED THERE AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB TO 1033 MB MOVES OFF THE ERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTERACTS WITH A DEEPER COLOMBIA LOW TO THEN KEEP THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IN CHECK IN THE WARNING AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THU. THE GALE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. ON THU...LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 22N W OF FRONT TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084 AND AMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE