000 AGXX40 KNHC 231946 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS GULF FROM ATLC RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. SWLY RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS AROUND 12Z FRI AND RACE SE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNSET FRI...THEN THE FRONT SLOWS SOMEWHAT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 24.5N FROM SW FL TO A FRONTAL WAVE LOW DEVELOPING BRIEFLY NEAR 24N93W ON SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE N SAT NIGHT AND QUICKLY FILL INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MON...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK W ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF MON NIGHT. STRONG NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL INDUCE GALES...WITH NWLY WIND TO 40 KT ALONG THE LOWER MEXICAN COAST...AND MINIMAL GALES NE OF FRONT S OF 26N FRI NIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY BELOW GALE SAT EVENING. GALE ARE THUS BEING EXPANDED INTO NW GULF ZONE S OF 26N FRI EVENING AND NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED LLVL VORTICES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG 21-22N THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NLY SWELLS HAVE PEAKED MOVING INTO CARIB ISLANDS AND PASSAGES...AND WILL PEAK THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...WITH MIXED NW AND NE SEAS 10-12 FT THERE. THE ELY TRADES ARE STRENGTHENING E OF 80W IN RESPONSE TO THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGING N OF THE AREA WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH...BUT NOT REACH...THE YUCATAN PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT. ELY TRADES WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH BEHIND SECOND FRONT SLIDES EWD ACROSS MID LATS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA SUN-MON AS HIGH PASSES DUE NORTH. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... NLY SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE EASTERN WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY FADE TONIGHT. STRONG ATLC RIDGE ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO STRAITS OF FL WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW N OF THE RIDGE PRESENTLY INCREASING AS A VERY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SW FLOW WILL RELAX SOME N OF RIDGE TONIGHT AFTER FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPS BY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST FRI EVENING...AND PASS THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AROUND MIDDAY SAT... THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT EVENING...THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SE PORTION SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP AGAIN OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080-082...GALE WARNING FRI-SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING