000 AGXX40 KNHC 230551 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1255 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM THE SE GULF TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. SLY RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WINDS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRI AND RACE E TO A POSITION FROM THE MS DELTA TO THE NW BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNSET FRI...THEN THE FRONT SLOWS SOMEWHAT BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 24.5N FROM SW FL TO A FRONTAL WAVE LOW DEVELOPING BRIEFLY NEAR 24N93W ON SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE N SAT NIGHT AND QUICKLY FILL INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WHICH WILL DIVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MON...WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK W ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF MON NIGHT. STRONG NLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE SAT EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N55W TO 20N65W TO 21N70W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. NLY POST-FRONTAL SWELLS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR 22N55W AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH THIS ROUND OF N SWELLS PROPAGATING S THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND REACHING S AMERICA ALONG 07N FRI...BUT SUBSIDING TO A 10 FT MAXIMUM BY THEN. THE ELY TRADES ARE STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY...AND INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH...BUT NOT REACH...THE YUCATAN PASSAGE ON FRI NIGHT. ELY TRADES WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 21N E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. POST-FRONTAL NLY SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING FROM NNW TO SSE THROUGH THE EASTERN WATERS TODAY WITH A RIDGE ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM 31N55W TO SE FL. SLY RETURN FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IS INCREASING TONIGHT WITH A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY THE SLIGHTEST SW-WSW 20-25 KT WIND SHIFT. THE SW FLOW WILL RELAX SOME N OF A RIDGE TONIGHT THAT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 27N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST LATE FRI AFTERNOON...AND PASS THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS AROUND SUNRISE SAT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT EVENING...THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SE PORTION SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SE RETURN FLOW QUICKLY SETS UP AGAIN OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ082...GALE WARNING FRI-SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE...GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON